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March 2009 Newsletter

In This Issue

Productivity, the Economic Crisis, and the Up-Skilling of Society
States Developing Innovative Strategies to Bolster Degree Attainment Within Existing Funding
Newsline
EdSked
Knowledge Center
Tools You Can Use

Productivity, the Economic Crisis, and the Up-Skilling of Society

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Anthony CarnevaleAn Interview with Labor Economist Anthony Carnevale
Representatives of the initiative sat down recently with Anthony Carnevale, director of the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University, to find out how labor market trends and the current economic crisis will affect higher education.


Looking ahead, how much will the economy's demand for college-educated workers increase?
More than we think. The problem is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) undercounts its projections for the postsecondary education needs of the future workforce in two critical aspects. First, education requirements for specific occupations are assigned to the middle education level of current occupants. BLS throws away the top and bottom 20 percent of workers (including graduate-degree recipients and high school dropouts). So an occupation will be listed as requiring high school and some college when in fact it might require more postsecondary education. Second, in their predictions, education requirements are essentially static. They do not reflect how educational requirements that have been increasing pretty significantly in recent years.
Our center is currently developing new projections that better account for changing realities, both at the national and state level. We are essentially going into the BLS model and doing some remodeling of education demand evaluations and predictions. In the next month or two we will have educational demand annualized out to 2018.

What’s been happening to postsecondary requirements in the current labor market?
In the current recession, temporary job loss (when people lose jobs but go back to the same occupation) has essentially disappeared. The jobs being permanently lost are the jobs that don’t require a postsecondary education.
Meanwhile, a whole series of occupations, including fields like welding and manufacturing, once considered low-skill jobs, are requiring postsecondary credentials. When you are building oil tanks and nuclear facilities that pose real dangers, states want to make sure that their welders are educated. This is what we economists call “skill bias technology change,” or sustained increases in the level of education and training demanded by occupations.
There is something bigger at work, too. Our center has been looking at Baby-Boomer retirement in the context of occupational shortages. The biggest shortages will come out of the public sector, with a large demand for firefighters, police, school teachers, and so on. There will be shortages in the private sector, too, but those companies usually get first dibs at the graduating workforce because they pay more.

Is our higher education system on track to meet these shortages?
Probably not, but I’m not really worried about how the economy will cope. Labor markets are resilient. Providers (including corporate and for-profit) will step in to meet the need for workers, and employers that can offshore jobs will find their labor elsewhere. The bigger concern is the social consequences. Not educating the number of Americans we need to be competitive internationally will increase social stratification, which has serious ramifications for government and society at large.
Today, partly because people have to go to college or trade schools to earn credentials, it seems to take forever for youth to make the transition into adulthood. Young people used to move from family dependence to independence – landing a job that pays enough to start a family – by age 25. Now it isn’t until age 32. This longer transition ends up sorting kids and favoring affluent young people, who end up “making it” much faster than others.
On top of that, legislatures are cutting postsecondary education budgets, which forces institutions to only take people who finish quickly, pay in full, and increase accountability numbers favorably. So over the next three years or so, there will likely be a push to get rid of the low-income and non-traditional students. This will come at the very time we need more, not fewer, of these students to enter and graduate.

Will higher education systems have to change to meet the increased need for graduates?
The problem is that the vast majority of Americans require some kind of postsecondary education or training, but the nation has no idea how it can afford it. So the dynamic that we are about to see is the federal government fighting with the states over who will put money into a declining budget for postsecondary education and training. It will be a game of tit for tat. Colleges will seek more money from states; states will seek more money from the feds. And everybody will continue to attack institutions for spending and charging more. It’s going to be this merry-go-round of finger pointing.
We are coming to the point where education is more than half of a state’s budget. We may be getting close to being tapped out. The state can’t carry any increases in their education budget, so we are potentially in store for a revolution in the sense that there is a fiscal federalism crisis here we haven’t seen since the 1970s.

But is it just a matter of giving institutions more money? What about encouraging states and institutions to better use their resources to ensure we have the graduates we need?
We need to put the money where it will produce results and reach the students who need it. To be really blunt, we need to engage in a form of bribery to institutions to move in the right directions, cutting through some of the bureaucracy that runs rampant in higher education.
My bias is that we need to be focusing less on changing higher education institutions and more on helping them respond to the demands from the economy. Monkeying with colleges and universities about the basic rules of the road will take a lot of time and may not offer much in the way of results. We ought to urge the states to help community colleges respond to the skill demand in health care, instruction, and the trades, and build public-private partnerships between public colleges and employers in those areas.
But, unfortunately, much of the money coming in is not flexible. Ideally, instead of spending state money on another research university, the money would go toward instruction. But the problem is, the money for construction is a different pot of money than funds for instruction. So if you cancel the plans for the new research university, you won’t gain the money you saved by not building it.
We should be giving money to institutions to maintain and improve programs that work and to fund missions that the market won’t pay for. One idea I have is to create a federal program that gives colleges extra money for educating hard-to-educate kids, such as low-income and non-traditional students, because that is exactly who is going to community colleges.

What is your view of the federal stimulus package as it relates to higher education? Will it help?
At the very least, the bill will create jobs, 3.7 million by the Council of Economic Advisors’ estimate. Now the majority of those jobs are going have significant skill, training, and education requirements. Over half are going to require some form of higher education while others will require significant amounts of work experience and on-the-job training. All of this means that in the coming years we’re going to continue to see a high demand for higher education.
Overall, though, I have to admit I’m disappointed with the bill. While there has been a significant investment in state higher education data systems, it comes up short in terms of connecting the data from higher education and the workforce. I also would put family income and socioeconomic status in all of our higher education databases, so we could watch this process of stratification and at least guilt people out of it. We really need this information, and it's unfortunate that the federal government is not willing to step up. But our center will continue its efforts to fill this gap.

What do you say to people who argue that a postsecondary education is not necessary?
Right now, this is the time to go to school and stay there. We are going to have quantity problems in the workforce coming out of this recession. But to me that’s good news. States and institutions will have to respond. Worker shortages will lead to investments in training. All the stuff we talk about in education that has been undervalued will get funded. Policymakers are going to beat the hell out of the education system and blame them, but in the mean time the necessary investments will be made. Ultimately, they always are.

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States Developing Innovative Strategies to Bolster Degree Attainment Within Existing Funding

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In his first address to Congress, President Obama stated that one of his top priorities will be to ensure that the United States once again leads the world in having a college-educated population.

Over the last several months, 11 states have been working with support from Lumina Foundation for Education to ensure that more students enter and graduate even as their states endure the worst budget crises since World War II.

The states – Arizona, California, Colorado, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Montana, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin – have been awarded $150,000 one-year grants as part of the Foundation’s Making Opportunity Affordable (MOA) initiative. As part of this effort, governors, legislators and leaders of colleges and universities currently are participating in a national “Learning Year.” They are refining and developing strategies in three policy areas:

  • Recasting state finance systems to reward institutions for graduating students, not just enrolling them. In most states, appropriations for public colleges and universities are based on how many students have enrolled and/or on how much was spent the year before. By contrast, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas are exploring innovative ways of financing college based on completion and graduation. The states will identify new ways funding policies and formulas can promote and reward academic success, give more insight into institutional performance, and promote collaboration among institutions.
  • Increasing the efficiency and cost effectiveness of academic programs and administrative operations. States and institutions have historically pursued cost saving and reallocation strategies as a response to budget shortfalls, rather than as an ongoing part of how they do business. California is analyzing information about student academic progress and attendance, credit accumulation patterns, and academic performance to identify and remove barriers to student success. Colorado has awarded grants to four state institutions that will test campus-based approaches to increase enrollment and attainment for adults that are a few credits short of earning their degrees and to promote Hispanic student success in science, technology, and mathematics fields. Mississippi is mounting an effort to advance a system-wide redesign of developmental education courses.

Meanwhile, two other states are working to improve transitions and transfers from community and technical colleges to four-year institutions and to reduce the time it takes for students to earn degrees. To address workforce shortages in teaching, engineering, and nursing, Maryland is developing concurrent enrollment programs at community colleges and four-year institutions. As part of its plan, Wisconsin will simplify its transfer process and address barriers to success for returning veterans, adult learners, minorities, and other underserved populations. It also will provide opportunities for students to complete a baccalaureate degree in three years utilizing concurrent enrollment, online, and year-round instruction.

  • Creating or expanding new models of delivery to serve more students by targeting lower-cost institutions. For example, Montana is building a new, networked consortium of technical and community colleges that is convenient for students who live far away from college campuses. Arizona is developing more cost-effective pathways to baccalaureate degrees by tapping a broader range of institutions in building bachelor’s programs. The state is developing a pilot community college-university partnership program that will feature a joint admissions process, joint advising and career planning, and shared student support and counseling systems.

 

"Lumina Foundation's initiative allows states like Maryland to continue expanding the opportunity of higher education to more of our citizens rather than fewer. Higher education should not be a privilege afforded only to those with the means to purchase it, and these funds from Lumina will help Maryland fill the gap of demand and available public resources."

--Gov. Martin O'Malley, Maryland

“Although Texas is doing comparatively well in these difficult economic times, we must continue pressing for a more efficient and affordable system of higher education that will prepare students for the increasingly high-tech workplace. These funds from Lumina will help our state continue pursuing better, more affordable ways to increase successful student participation in higher education.”

--Gov. Rick Perry, Texas

 

Using New Tools
As strategic first steps, states involved in MOA are gathering important information about how their systems operate. They are:

  • Conducting state policy audits to ensure that higher-education policies align with state goals for cost-effective degree production. States are reviewing laws, regulations, and policies in everything from finance to human resources to information technology and will propose policy changes based on the findings.
  • Using student flow models to identify where in the system states are losing students and dollars. States are partnering with the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems to examine a broad range of data, including student patterns of attendance, credit accumulation, experience with bottleneck courses, and academic performance. The information generated by these models will help identify where and how campuses and systems lose the most students and what can be done to boost productivity. Some states, such as California, are also examining the impact of system fee policies and federal, state, and institutional financial aid policies on students.
  • Tracking how their money is being spent. States are drawing on new tools and metrics from the Delta Cost Project, a new nonprofit organization that has created a national database on college spending in key categories, such as research, instruction and student support, public service, and other areas. With support from MOA, Delta also has developed metrics to help states and institutions better track where money comes from and where it goes. Montana, for example, is using Delta’s metrics to evaluate finance policies within its two-year institutions. In collaboration with Delta’s staff, Mississippi is developing strategies to strengthen capacity to manage costs at the state and system levels.

Building Support and Efficiencies on Campus
States officials that are seeking to change enrollment-based funding formulas recognize that they will need support on the ground. Many are engaged in dialogues with campus leaders, faculty, and staff about what must change and working with campus leaders and others to identify best practices that can be brought to scale.

For example, Ohio has established a statewide “efficiency council” comprised of trustees, students, business representatives, and university and community college association representatives. The council will develop and monitor creative solutions for efficiencies throughout the University System of Ohio—from the use of facilities to aggregating purchasing power to leveraging the scale of the system to provide more low-cost options for students. The council will make its meetings, findings, and recommendations public and will distribute them to the media, elected officials, and other stakeholders.

Providing Lower-Cost Options Where Students Are Located
A number of states are working to increase enrollment and degree production by developing delivery models that rely on lower cost institutions. Montana is pursuing this strategy by coordinating and expanding two-year colleges to reach populations (high school students, Native Americans, working adults, and underserved regions). The state also will promote new delivery models such as portable programs and technology-enhanced collaborations.

 

“We need to reach students where they are academically and also geographically.”

--Mary Moe, Deputy Commissioner of Two-Year Education, Montana

 

Moving Beyond Campuses and Capitals
States also are exploring the role that the business community can play in building support for a productivity agenda. The Indiana Chamber of Commerce, for example, is spearheading efforts to revamp the state’s higher education finance formula. California is cultivating “business champions” across the state to help communicate the urgent need to increase baccalaureate degree production, particularly in high-demand fields.

Thinking Big
The Learning Year is meant to provide information about what doesn’t work as well as what does. “We want to encourage strategic risk taking, and this will mean that not everything that is attempted is going to be successful,” said Kristin Conklin of HCM Strategists, LLC, which is overseeing state planning and implementation efforts. “But we are encouraging states to think big and pursue what they think are the best bets for promoting large-scale productivity improvements.”

 

“States can’t be shy when it comes to finding ways of increasing productivity on our nation’s acampuses to raise stagnant U.S. Degree-attainment rates. While we’re holding pat, other nations are rapidly expanding their higher education systems and producing more graduates.”

-- Jamie Merisotis, President, Lumina Foundation

 

Merisotis noted that the current economic environment requires dramatically new approaches. “If the challenges of prior economic slowdowns have taught us anything, it's that the absence of new money can make possible change that wouldn't otherwise be possible.”

 

“Transforming higher education policy and practice is a huge undertaking, but it’s where Indiana has to now go. For states like Indiana to have strong economy and strong communities, we need to provide new incentives for higher education to change in real ways and make room for thousands more Hoosiers that need postsecondary education.”

-- Scott Jenkins, Education Aide to Gov. Mitch Daniels, Indiana

 

Looking Ahead
Later this year, the $45.5-million MOA initiative will award grants of $2 million each to as many as five states whose plans hold the greatest promise to bolster higher education productivity.

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Newsline

[ more ]

State colleges also face cuts in ambitions
New York Times / March 16

13 reasons colleges are in this mess
The Chronicle of Higher Education / March 13

Next higher ed chief will face tough goals
The Clarion-Ledger (Jackson, Miss.) / March 20

Obama's call of college for all; Could it be done?
Associated Press (Boston Globe) / February 28

Bill aims to merge UT, Regents college systems
The Tennessean / February 27

Senator suggests closing colleges: State seeking solution to budget shortfall
New Orleans Times-Picayune / February 13

A four-year college, strictly educational: Pa. proposal envisions no frills and reduced bills
Philadelphia Inquirer / January 22

Commentaries:

It's time to try the no-frills option
Chronicle of Higher Ed / March 5

Americans close books way too early
Atlanta-Journal Constitution / March 1

What direction for higher education in Ohio?
The Buckeye Institute / February 9

The scholarship of administration
Inside Higher Ed / February 2

Yes

EdSked

[ more ]

March

13-15: Community College Baccalaureate Association's annual conference, "Access and Success," in Reno, Nev.

April

23-25: National Conference of State Legislatures Spring Forum 2009 in Washington. D.C.

Texas' state team will conduct eight simultaneous meetings on improving student transfers from two- to four-year colleges.

CEOs for Cities will launch the Talent Dividend Tour to more than two dozen U.S. cities to engage urban leaders in the development of strategies to increase the number of people with a college degree.

May

8-10: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Network Data Conference and IPEDS Workshop in New Orleans.

27-29: Educational Policy Institute annual conference, "Retention 2009," in New Orleans.

Montana's state team will host a conference with state leaders and constituents on two-year postsecondary models.

June

10-11: Making Opportunity Affordable initiative convenes business, higher education, and government leaders from 11 states in Denver to address making colleges and universities more productive at undergraduate education.

27-30: National Association of College & University Business Officers (NACUBO) annual meeting in Boston.

The Community College Research Center at Teachers College, to release a report, "Choosing and Retaining Performance Funding."

Yes

Knowledge Center

[ more ]

Jobs/Trends

The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs

The Brookings Institution / February 2009

Report predicts large increase in middle-skill jobs in the coming years; recommends increased U.S. investment in high quality education.

Opinion/Cost

Squeeze Play 2009: The Public's Views on College Costs Today

x; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px; margin-top:5px; font-style:italic;">National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education and Public Agenda / February 2009

Survey shows Americans see higher education as essential, but harder to afford.

Cost/Trends

Trends in College Spending: Where Does the Money Come From? Where Does It Go?

Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, and Accountability / January 2009

Analysis reveals that institutions are relying more on private funding, money continues to move away from the classroom, and enrollment is growing fastest at schools that have the least to invest in students.

Opinion/Funding

Does Public Higher Ed Funding Drive Economic Growth?

Cato Institute Policy Forum / January 2009

Panelists discuss both the benefits and costs of public funding for higher education. (video/podcast/presentation)

Data Systems/Accountability

Ready to Assemble: A Model State Higher Education Accountability System

Education Sector / December 2008

Report finds that states are improving their higher education accountability systems, but need to do more, particularly with respect to tracking outcomes and using accountability data in decision-making.

Policy/Advocacy

Big Questions, Practical Answers: New Strategies for Setting and Moving a Higher Education Agenda

National Conference of State Legislatures / December 2008

Brochure lays out current higher education challenges and makes recommendations for states and institutions.

Opinion/Cost/Access

The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality

National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education and Public Agenda / October 2008

Interviews with more than two dozen college presidents reveal a view that reducing costs conflicts with improving access and quality, which is at odds with the views of policymakers, business leaders, and the public.

Cost/Efficiency

The $7,376 "Ivies": Value-Designed Models of Undergraduate Education

Center for College Affordability and Productivity / August 2008

Report proposes an Ivy League delivery model that doesn't come with an Ivy League cost.

No

Tools You Can Use

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Look for the release of new products and reports that help states address productivity challenges:

Policy Audits—Opportunity Analysis, a study of how state policies promote opportunities to increase postsecondary education productivity, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. (Authors: Bill Blomquist, Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis (IUPUI), and Nancy Shulock, California State University, Sacramento)

Rethinking Spending—Performance Funding 2.0, a web-based resource for state-level policymakers—including tip sheets and videos—that will stimulate and guide policy and practice changes in the funding of postsecondary education. (Author: Brenda Albright, consultant for Making Opportunity Affordable)

Where the Students and Dollars Go—Student Flow Models, a tool to help diagnose where institutions, public postsecondary systems, and states lose students and dollars. (Author: Dennis Jones, the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems)

Tightening the Belt—State Budget Models, a tool that helps states explore options for how they budget higher education resources to better manage spending. (Author: Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, and Accountability, in collaboration with the National Association of State Budget Officers, the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, and the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education)

Yes
 
 

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